Jason Storm
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
121-80-1 Overall Record

College Football: Arizona State (-3.5) vs Utah (+3.5) Over – Under 48.5

The Arizona State Sun Devils are going to Salt Lake City to play the Utah Utes for the first time since 1993. These teams may just now be getting familiar with one another, but that’s not going to take long now that this is a Pac 12 divisional match up. The Oddsmakers have this a 3.5 point spread, but that’s not what surprises me.

Overreaction is apart of sports. Sometimes its necessary. We are seeing that the Peyton Manning injury to the Colts wasn’t an exaggeration. But I feel like the injury to Utes Quarterback Jordan Wynn is an overreaction by the oddsmakers. The Over – Under for this game is set at 48.5. A ridiculously low mark.

Most of the reasoning for this low total is because Jordan Wynn is not going to play after separating his shoulder last week against Washington. Jon Hays is going to fill in for him. Hays did alright in his fill in appearance going 10 for 16 and throwing for 156 yards. Hays has a strong arm, and also can run the ball. He will pick up a 1st down or two using his legs. Don’t underestimate this guy and his capabilities.

This Utah team is one that can put up a bunch of points. They average 27.2 points a game, but it was only two week ago they put up 52 on BYU who has a formidable Defense. Utah has a well balanced offense. This is an offense that returned 7 starters from last year, a year in which this team put up 33 points a game. They did it both on the ground and through the air. They averaged 153 yards a game last season, 4.6 yards a carry. This year their rushing yards per game is slightly down at 132, but they had to replace their entire running back unit. Utah is the only team in the FBS to have an entire running back core not have a single yard before this season. Running backs can learn quickly and catch on. I fully expect them to have a break out game tonight.

Arizona State’s defense isn’t the toughest. In fact, this team got pounded on the ground against USC, allowing 175 yards rushing and 5.3 yards a carry! That’s embarrassing bad. I don’t think they will be as bad today, but it does show that this ASU defense is a little soft. They still will give up 4 TDs in this game.

It’s much easier to be optimistic about ASU offense. That USC game I mentioned where they gave up 5.3 yards a carry, I left out the fact they won that game by putting up 43 points! That is against a USC defense which is a little more athletic than this Utah defense. Arizona State’s offense is lead by 6’8 QB Brock Osweiler. Osweiler already has 1300+ yards on the season and has completed 68% of his passes. I understand that Arizona States offensive line is a little banged up, but its not going to be easy to take down this 250 pound quarterback.

Arizona State is another well balanced offense. They beat Oregon State by running the ball in their last game, but beat Mizz by throwing the ball. I cannot say how ASU is going to do it today, but I can tell you Utah’s defense doesn’t know either. Arizona State should put up at least 4 TDs of their own offense, which sends this game way over the total.

Arizona St has scored at least 35 points in 4 of its 5 games this season. It they score 28, thats will be a victory for this Utah Defense. The fact of the matter is the line is too low as the public and oddsmakers are overreacting to injuries. Neither of these offenses rely on one guy. I like the over here.

Take Over 48.5

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