The New England Patriots started this season with record breaking numbers. In week 1 Tom Brady threw for an astounding 516 yards! He completed a pass to 10 different receivers and had 4 TDs. It was a statement that the Patriots are a great offensive team and they will be a force all season.

The Patriots score 32 points a game. They have only had 3 games this season where they failed to score 21+ points. You would have to go back to week 8 to find that. They have been even better of late, scoring 40 ppg in their last 3 which includes dismantling the Denver Broncos in their first playoff game. Over that time, the Patriots have averaged 463 yards of total offense. Their 328.7 passing yards a game over the last 3 is more than the total yards the Ravens have gained over the same time period.

Still the Ravens should be able to move the ball. The Patriots are horrific on defense. The fact they held the Broncos to 10 points shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who knows the NFL. The Broncos don’t have what it takes to score much in this league, they were 25th in the league in scoring. Factoring that game out, since the start of December the Patriots have allowed 24 ppg. That would sound okay normally, but look at the offenses they played:

 

Bills 14th ranked offense
Dolphins 20th ranked offense
Broncos 25th ranked offense

Redskins 26th ranked offense

Colts 28th ranked offense

These are terrible offenses that average around 18 ppg. They allowed the bottom tier of offenses to score a full TD better than their season average. They play no defense whatsoever, and I expect the Ravens have no trouble moving the ball.

We all know that Ray Rice can dominate at any given time. He averaged 4.7 yards a carry, 2nd highest in his carry. He gained over 1350 yards during the regular season, a career high. Yet what makes Ray Rice one of the best running backs in the NFL is his ability to catch the ball. Rice had over 700 yards receiving this season, nearly 10 yards a catch. We will see a lot of this today, and they will challenge New England’s defensive players to tackle one of the games best.

The Ravens have some good options catching the ball too. Anquan Boldin is a star and can make big plays. He is a great route runner and can across the middle to pick up a first down. He will have a size advantage over the small Patriots corner backs. He will make some big plays in this game. However the big play receiver in this offense is speedy Torry Smith.

You may think of the Ravens as a Ray Rice team but they will take some big shots down the field and they will convert them against a defense that allowed 79 pass plays of 20 or more yards. That was the worst in the league.

Still, I cannot take the Ravens. The Patriots are just too explosive offensively. They have too many weapons and too many mismatches. Wes Welker some how quietly put up over 1500 yards receiving. Gronkowski broke the tight end scoring record with 17 TDs this season. Plus they have another great passing tight end in Aaron Hernandez, and dont forget Patriot great Deion Branch too. They have too many weapons, too great of a system, and too great of a Quarterback for me to bet against them.

Plus I believe Ravens defense is slightly overrated. They only had to play a single team all season that has an elite quarterback that throws the ball down field. That was against the Chargers, a game in which the Chargers dominated the Ravens scoring over 30 points. I think both teams get more than 4 TDs sending this game OVER the posted total.

Take Over 50