Jason Storm
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
150-98-1 Overall Record   

College Basketball Predictions: Central Michigan (+12) vs. Bowling Green (-12) Over – Under 127

     Looking at the season averages of both teams this appears to be a game that Bowling Green should win going away.  For starters, Bowling Green averages 66.1 points per game this season compared to Central Michigan’s 61.7 and Bowling Green allows 64.2 points per game compared to Central Michigan’s 67.1.  Although Central Michigan has only won 10 games all season, these late season games in college basketball rarely go as expected and many times these teams who are only playing for their pride can be very dangerous.

     Bowling Green is only 2-5 against the spread in their last 7 games following an against the spread win and 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 Monday games.  Now in the first round of the Mid-American Conference tournament, Bowling Green comes in as a 12 point favorite over Central Michigan, which seems odd when you consider that this is only a six seed versus an eleven seed.  Even in NCAA Tournament games this matchup usually, produces the most upsets and these conference tournaments are no different in producing some of the most unpredictable moments of all.
    
     Central Michigan did fall to Bowling Green on the road earlier in the season 71-58 in their only meeting of the season, but Central Michigan is 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 games versus Bowling Green.  Central Michigan is also 1-1 against the spread this season as an underdog of 10-12 points, while Bowling Green is 0-1 as a favorite of 10-12 points. Central Michigan’s roster also features three players that average double figures scoring for the season, which will make them a tougher a tougher to blowout in a win or go home situation.   
     Bowling Green also suffered a loss in their last game to Buffalo on Saturday, while Central Michigan ended the season on a high note with a 6 point win over Western Michigan.  This game will be closer than many people expect, despite Central Michigan’s losing record.  They are a team that will leave every ounce of their effort out on the floor, because they know that this could be the last game that they get to play this season.  Bowling Green may win this game, but to think that they will win by 12 given the situation is a bit unreasonable.

Pick:  Central Michigan +12