Jason Storm
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143-93-1 Overall Record

Pro Football: Denver Broncos (+14) vs New England Patriots (-14) Over – Under 50

There has been a ton of media coverage about Patriots having the 2nd to worst defense in the NFL. However, they are only looking at yards allowed, which can be a good indicator but also can be misleading. A good defense can be a bend but don’t break defense, and the Patriots have that quality. They only allow 21 points per game that’s 15th in the league. It surprisingly good consider the way the media constantly bashes this New England team.

 

Patriots also have a decent rushing defense. They are 17th in the league. They still have Vincent Wilford at the DT who has made his millions by stopping the run at 6’2 325lbs, the is a big guy that is a space eater and a run stopper. He’s not alone up there either, they have another big guy in the middle named Kyle Love who is 6’1 is 310 pounds. This is a lot of man in the middle of this line. It’s going to be a factor in this game.

See the Broncos run up the middle much more than to the outsides which make the Defensive tackles the most important part of this defensive unit. I think they are going to stuff the Broncos at the line this time around. 

I know many of you will point to their meeting earlier in the year when the Denver Broncos ran all over the Patriots. Broncos put up 252 rushing yards, which is a staggering amount. However, 90 of those yards came from Tebow. Tebow is much bigger and stronger than defenses expect which is exactly what the Patriots players thought after their meeting. They were surprised by his size and strength, well they won’t be surprised this time. They are going to be more prepared!

Tebow’s offense is different than any other in the NFL, however, it’s based on deception. This extra preparation is a much much bigger advantage to the Patriots than any other team playing this weekend. They faced Tebow once, they saw it live and now they will have time to adjust. Only one other team has played Denver twice with Tebow at quarterback, and that was Kansas City Chiefs. In there 2nd game, the Chiefs held the Broncos to just 3 points and 266 total yards! That’s what happens when you play a gimmick offense twice. You learn their tricks and you adjust. The adjustments the Patriots make are going to slow down Tim Tebow. 

 

Still, I am not taking the Patriots 14 points is just too much! But you have to love the Under here.

Denver doesn’t have the offensive fire power to warrant a total this high. The number is everything in sports betting and this number is too high. For the Broncos they haven’t had a total this high all year. In fact, Since Tebow has taken over the Broncos have only averaged a total of 40.5 points. 10 points is a huge difference.

The fact this game is at Gillette Stadium is a big deal. First, Tebow has only played in one game in cold weather and that was against the Bills were he was picked off 3 times. The temperature for this game is going to be in the teens. Tebow isn’t going to like and surely isn’t going to like getting hit in the cold weather. I expect him to fumble the ball at least once in this game. But more importantly is the high winds, near 20 mph which will slow down Brady as well.

This game is going Under.

Take Under 50