Jason Storm
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
144-94-1 Overall Record

Pro Basketball: Denver Nuggets (+5.5) vs Philadelphia 76ers (-5.5) Over – Under 200

The 76ers may be the most surprising team in the NBA right now. Their 10-3 gives them a 4 game lead in a division that has both the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics. Tonight they host the Denver Nuggets who have a 9-5 record and are already 3 games back of league leading Oklahoma City Thunder.

Denver needs this game more than the 76ers. I know it’s early in the season, but the Nuggets are in the middle of a 5 game road streak and have to have a stellar performance to not fall out of the division race already.

The 76ers meanwhile are sitting comfortable and are read hot.

Philadelphia 76ers are 9-1 SU and against the spread in their last 10. Bettors are loving them right now which explains why the public is pounding Philadelphia right now. It’s a bad move. I am not saying this team isn’t a true contender, because they are deep, but they aren’t as hot as you may think.

Lets evaluate their last 10 games, shall we?

Golden State 5-8

New Orleans 3-10

Detroit 3-11

Toronto 4-10

Indiana 9-3

Sacramento 4-10

New York 6-7

Washington 1-12

Washington 1-12

Milwaukee 4-9

 

They went 9-1 against them, but notice they just weren’t playing bad NBA teams, they were playing the worst of the worst! They played 5 games against teams that are dead last in their division.

Their opponents in the last 10 games record stands at 40-92, a winning percentage of .300! There will be no easier stretch in the NBA this entire season.

Remember I told you the 76ers strength is their depth, well that’s also the Nuggets strength. Both teams have 8 players that average over 5 ppg.

The difference in this game is going to be size, something that 76ers don’t have. Their Center Spencer Hawes who averages 9 rpg and 10 ppg is doubtful, but even if he does play they are too small to defend this giant Nuggets team.

76ers have two players at 6’8 that get serious playing time: Elton Brand and Thaddeous Young. They have a big challenge ahead of them and there just isn’t enough large bodies to throw at them.

Nuggets have  Mozgov 7’1, Nene 6’11, Anderson 6’10, Gallinari 6’10, Cory Brewer 6’9, and Al Harrington 6’9. That’s all I should have to say. You have 2 active players for the 76ers that get regular playing time and they are only 6’8. At any given time, the Nuggets should put 3 of these guys on the floor and there is going to be a mismatch of at least 4 inches.

This 76ers teams in trouble tonight as the Nuggets are going to get easy looks inside. Don’t worry about this game being on the road either: Nuggets are 12-3 last 15 games on the road against a winning opponent. They are not only bigger, I believe they are the better team too.

Take: Nuggets +5.5