Here’s another game that is about conflicting styles of play. The Marquette Golden Eagles are ranked going into Notre Dame to take on the Fighting Irish.

If you don’t know, Marquette wants to push the ball and get points in transition. They want to create turnovers. If youre not aware, they do that well. Marquette has forced opponents into 398 turnovers this year, 3rd most in the nation. This is their game plan every time.

They are completely comfortable playing a game in which they score 70-80 points. They want as many offensive possessions and shot opportunities as possible. They have 1324 attempts from the field this season, 57th most. It would be even more if they didn’t live at the free throw line. Marquette makes 17 free throws a game! That’s not attempts, thats conversions.

It works for this team, they have made 6 straight NCAA Tournaments, and well on their way to making a 7th. They have won 7 in a row and all 7 were against Big East Opponents. Thier style of play is tough for opponents to handle

Notre Dame on the other hand slows down the game as much as possible. They win games because they keep their opponents from scoring, not because they score a lot.

Much of this has to do with the fact that the Fighting Irish lost their best player, Tim Abromaitis in just the 2nd game of the season. Abromaitis was the leading scorer last year for Notre Dame, and started off the 1st two averaging 17 ppg. He was going to be the player they relied on offensively. There may have been no bigger loss in college basketball. He meant so much to this team.

Notre Dame is going to need a miracle to make the NCAA Tournament. They have made it 4 out of the last 5 years.

They might not turn the ball over a lot, but they also don’t force a lot of turnovers.

Quite frankly, I don’t believe Norte Dame has enough offense to get this win. I know they have won their last 3 games, including a win over #1 ranked Syracuse. That is going to be the highlight of their season. However, in those 3 games, Notre Dame scored just 57 points. That’s 20 less than what Marquette averages a night.

Marquette is going to do what they always do: Create Turnovers, take a ton of shots and get to the line. They should have no probably beating this anemic offense of Notre Dame.

Take Marquette -1

Jason Storm
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
148-95-1 Overall Record 

College Basketball Predictions: Clemson (+8.5) vs Virginia (-8.5) Over – Under 106Virginia is ranked 16th in the country which is a big turnaround for this program. They have built a new arena and facilities. They have a new coach in Tony Bennett that preaches defense. And that 16th ranking is Virginia highest ranking in 10 years. The Cavs haven’t been the NCAA Tournament since 2007. If they want a shot at ending that streak this time around, they have to do it by beating Clemson at home.

Virginia is coming off a 1 point road win over NC State. The win puts them at 17-3 on the season. That is more wins than Virginia had all of last season. It’s been a remarkable turnaround and much of the credit belongs to Mike Scott. Scott was becoming a big part of the offense for Virginia last season before he went down just 10 games into the season with an injury. He was averaging 15.9 ppg.

 

This year he came back as a 5th year senior and is in the running for the ACC player of the year award. He currently averages 16.7 ppg and 8 rebounds. He also shoots 57.4 from the floor. He leads his team in all those category’s, and is the one reliable offensive threat.

 

Virginia doesn’t need huge offensive production to be successful. The are the 2nd best defensive team in the entire country, allowing just 50.9 ppg.

 

For them them to be successful they have to stop the Clemson Tigers from scoring.

Clemson is not a huge offensive threat. They only average 65.1 ppg. and lost their top 2 scorers from a season ago. However, they are getting better. They have shoot 45% over the last 3 games. This has been an average of 69 points over that span.

 

Virginia’s opponents are only scoring .388 from the floor this season. They will be tested by this hot handed Clemson team.

Leading the way for Clemson is Andre Young. Young a senior averaging 14 points this season. However he has some offensive fire power. It was just 2 games ago he dropped a career high 29 points against Georgia Tech. He followed that with a 19 point performance. Young has made 2/3rds of all his shots in those games. The guy is just hot.

All this talk about offensive players is misleading. This game is going to be a low scoring, dog fight. Last year it was a 49-47 game. Virginia is the 2nd best defense in the country, but Clemson isn’t far behind, they are a top 30 defense themselves. This Clemson team was also first in the ACC in defense last year. They want the same kind of game.

The total of just over 100 points shows that. A 8.5 point underdog with a total that low is like a 15 point underdog with a total of around 130. It’s a big spread for a defensive game. It’s too big.

 

Clemson hasn’t been this big of a game all year, and theres no reason that Virginia should be their biggest favorite they have face. Even though this game is at UVA, it was just a week ago that Virginia lost at home to Virginia Tech, also a 8.5 point underdog. This is not an elite program beating up on the little guy. This line is off.

 

Take Clemson +8.5

There is a mammoth game on the board for us today as 16th Indiana goes to Wisconsin to play the 25th ranked Badgers. This Big 10 match up could have a big effect on the final season standings in the conference. Both are in position to get a strong seed in the NCAA Tournament but they have to take care of conference opponents. These teams are a combined 32-9 this season.

 

Wisconsin is a tough place to play and there are many theories of why; One of my favorite reasons is the fact the basketball arena is also used for Hockey. It provides a cold environment, something that opponents may not be used too. Opposing Players often complain about the chill in the air. Others say it’s just the way that Wisconsin play.

 

Bo Ryan, coach of Wisconsin, runs a unique swing offense. The swing offense is all about moving players and the ball, normally around the perimeter. It’s about screen, cuts, timing and passing. It can be tough to defend.

 

Speaking of defense, that seems to be a real advantage of Wisconsin playing at home. Wisconsin allows just 46 ppg game at home, which is several points lower than the 49 they have allowed per game this season. They are the number 1 defense in the country in points allowed and shooting percentage. It’s the defense that makes Wisconsin dangerous. They play a tough team defense.

 

Indiana Head Coach Tim Crean is in his 4th year and already has more wins this season in any other season. Crean is 44-70 since taking over, including 0-6 against Wisconsin.

Indiana is known for its basketball and the school has a loyal following.  Many feel that Cody Zeller may be the star they need. Zeller has been a major contributor for them this season. He is averaging 15.9 ppg, and is shooting .659 from the floor, 3rd best in the nation. Zeller is a big time talent, but he is just a freshman. He is playing in his the toughest away environment yet. He hasn’t seen this kind of defense before. I don’t think he is going to be that big of a factor.

 

The biggest factor in this game will be how Jordan Taylor, a guard for Wisconsin plays. Taylor scored 39 points last year against Indiana, a career high. It wasn’t luck. In his other game against Indiana, Taylor scored 28 points. Indiana doesnt play great defense and a talented scoring guard like Taylor will be able to dictate the game. Taylor leads this Badgers team in points and assist. As a senior he knows the swing offense well. The Wisconsin Badgers turn the ball over just 9 times a game, thats the 3rd least in the country.

Indiana offense is based of creating turnovers to turn up the tempo. Against a veteran, skilled guard like Taylor, they are not going to have any success. Make no doubt about it, the Wisconsin Badgers are the more talented team. They will win their 11th straight game over Indiana.

 
Pick: Wisconsin -7

Jason Storm
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
147-95-1 Overall Record 

Pro Basketball Predictions: Memphis Grizzlies (+3.5) vs Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) Over – Under 191.5

 

I am willing to go on record and say the Los Angeles Clippers will win their division and have home court advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs. They are a good team that has everything you could need to be successful.

 

I know that the Clippers have made Blake Griffin the face of the organization. But he is just a small piece of how talented this team really is: The addition of Chris Paul, a true point guard will be able to highlight the skill the Clippers have.

Any great point guard should make the players around him look better. Chris Paul has that ability. Yes, He is a great scorer. He averages 18 ppg. He can shoot the 3 well, 45% from 3 this season. He is a high percentage shooter, Paul has made 52% of his shots this season! Still, he is so much more than that.

Chris Paul is an excellent passer. He is a visionary of the offense. He averages 8.5 assist per game, 6th best in the NBA. It also helps the the Clippers have a lot of weapons to choose from. Blake Griffin is averaging 21 ppg. He is going to dunk several times a game, he is going to make that defense to collapse on him. When the defense does that, that leaves Mo Williams wide open outside. Williams has hit 49% of his 3 pointers this season! He is a serious shooting threat. Even more so is Chauncey Billups. Billups is better than most know. In his 14th NBA Season, he has averaged 15.5 ppg in his career. He shoots 40% from 3. He is someone that can do whatever needs to be done.

 

This is a lot of Grizzlies to have to defend. But its this match up, Rudy Gay vs Chris Paul that makes me love the Clippers. I know the Clippers have a ton of star power, but Chris Paul is a great defender. He will be able to match up on Gay. Gay is carrying this team offensively scoring more than 20 points in 6 of his last 8 games.
 
Gay has been neutralized plenty times before by Chris Paul. Lets look back at Gay”s shooting performance against Chris Paul. 23 of 67, that is just 34% shooting. Memphis cannot win without Gay’s scoring since Zach Randolph is out with an injury. This is a mismatch.

 

Clippers win this in a blow out.

 

Take Clipper -3.5
 

 

This is a big game for the New York Knicks. They have been surprisingly bad with a 7-10 record on the season. There offense is averaging just 95 ppg, that’s 12th in the league. For a a Mike D’Antoni offense this has to be unacceptable. This is an offense that scored 106 ppg, 2nd in the league last year. This is an offensive system that should be scoring 100 a night on an off night.

 

This is the time of game that the Knicks have to win. They mortgaged their future to bring one of the few superstars in the league to the Knicks. Carmelo Anthony has to be the man for this team. Carmelo isn’t a B list NBA player. He may be the best pure scorer in the NBA right now. Better than Kobe, better than Lebron. In terms of offensive talent, it’s a legitimate argument. There is nothing offensive about his offensive game.

Take Knicks -2.5

Jason Storm
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
146-94-1 Overall Record
 
Pro Football Predictions: Baltimore Raves (+7) vs New England Patriots (-7) Over – Under 50

 

The AFC Championship game is the first game of the day. It kicks off at 3pm EST / Noon PST. It’s a classic game of great offense versus a great defense. The number 3 ranked scoring offense takes on the 3rd best defense in the Baltimore Ravens in Foxboro, Massachusetts.

The New England Patriots started this season with record breaking numbers. In week 1 Tom Brady threw for an astounding 516 yards! He completed a pass to 10 different receivers and had 4 TDs. It was a statement that the Patriots are a great offensive team and they will be a force all season.

The Patriots score 32 points a game. They have only had 3 games this season where they failed to score 21+ points. You would have to go back to week 8 to find that. They have been even better of late, scoring 40 ppg in their last 3 which includes dismantling the Denver Broncos in their first playoff game. Over that time, the Patriots have averaged 463 yards of total offense. Their 328.7 passing yards a game over the last 3 is more than the total yards the Ravens have gained over the same time period.

Still the Ravens should be able to move the ball. The Patriots are horrific on defense. The fact they held the Broncos to 10 points shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone who knows the NFL. The Broncos don’t have what it takes to score much in this league, they were 25th in the league in scoring. Factoring that game out, since the start of December the Patriots have allowed 24 ppg. That would sound okay normally, but look at the offenses they played:

 

Bills 14th ranked offense
Dolphins 20th ranked offense
Broncos 25th ranked offense

Redskins 26th ranked offense

Colts 28th ranked offense

These are terrible offenses that average around 18 ppg. They allowed the bottom tier of offenses to score a full TD better than their season average. They play no defense whatsoever, and I expect the Ravens have no trouble moving the ball.

We all know that Ray Rice can dominate at any given time. He averaged 4.7 yards a carry, 2nd highest in his carry. He gained over 1350 yards during the regular season, a career high. Yet what makes Ray Rice one of the best running backs in the NFL is his ability to catch the ball. Rice had over 700 yards receiving this season, nearly 10 yards a catch. We will see a lot of this today, and they will challenge New England’s defensive players to tackle one of the games best.

The Ravens have some good options catching the ball too. Anquan Boldin is a star and can make big plays. He is a great route runner and can across the middle to pick up a first down. He will have a size advantage over the small Patriots corner backs. He will make some big plays in this game. However the big play receiver in this offense is speedy Torry Smith.

You may think of the Ravens as a Ray Rice team but they will take some big shots down the field and they will convert them against a defense that allowed 79 pass plays of 20 or more yards. That was the worst in the league.

Still, I cannot take the Ravens. The Patriots are just too explosive offensively. They have too many weapons and too many mismatches. Wes Welker some how quietly put up over 1500 yards receiving. Gronkowski broke the tight end scoring record with 17 TDs this season. Plus they have another great passing tight end in Aaron Hernandez, and dont forget Patriot great Deion Branch too. They have too many weapons, too great of a system, and too great of a Quarterback for me to bet against them.

Plus I believe Ravens defense is slightly overrated. They only had to play a single team all season that has an elite quarterback that throws the ball down field. That was against the Chargers, a game in which the Chargers dominated the Ravens scoring over 30 points. I think both teams get more than 4 TDs sending this game OVER the posted total.

Take Over 50

 

These are two good SEC teams and expect both to still be around in Tournament time. The SEC outside of Kentucky isn’t getting much respect, but this conference is deeper than most realize.

We are getting a great battle this Saturday Morning between Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. There is a ton of star power in this game.

Mississippi State has solid players all over the court. They are lead by big man Arnett Moultrie. Moultrie scores 16.1 ppg and 11 rpg. He is a force inside. He is a great shooter and as long as Mississippi St gets him the ball. He will able to score. At 6’11 he is the tallest guy on the floor but certainly not the biggest.

Renardo Sidney was all world in high school. At 6’10 280lbs he is a beast of man. Unfortunately because of his size, he plays in spurts. Even in limited time, Sidney makes a big impact in games. His size wears down defenders. He scores easy, and although he only averages 10 .6 ppg, he can dominate any time he wants. He shoots 58% from the field. He scored 17 points in his last game and pulled down 9 rebounds. his big body is going to be important tonight.

This size Mississippi State is what makes them tough out, but what makes them special is on the outside they have two very talented guards. Rodney Hood is only a Freshman and may be up for the Freshman of the year award. He is a pure scorer averaging 11ppg and shooting 48%. However he is not the best guard this team has, that honor belongs to Dee Bost. Bost can score, pass, penetrate a defense. He can do it all.

Mississippi State is a talented bunch of guys that know they need this game. However, Vanderbilt is talented offensively themselves. They score 74.6 ppg and one of the best 3 point shooting teams in country.

 That isn’t much of a surprise when Jenkins on your team. John Jenkins who is leading the SEC in scoring at nearly 20 ppg. He has a lightening quick release and can get hot from 3 at any time. He has hit 45.3% of his 3 point shots, and is shooting 48.2 % from the field. But he is more than just a jump shooter. He is a pure scorer that can create his own offense. Jenkins dropped 29 points on Mississippi State in their last meeting including letting him hit 5 three pointers.

Jenkins isn’t the only offensive threat on this well balanced team. Jeffery Taylor, another guard on this team, is averaging 16.9 ppg! He too is a deadly accurate shooter making 53.6% of his shots. That’s very impressive for a guard.

 

However, this year I don’t expect these guys to have it as easy as last season. Mississippi State is a solid defensive team. This season they are only allowing 31% from three. This is good perimeter defense. They are going to get additional help from one of the best Freshman in the country, Rodney Hood. At 6’8 he can match up with either Jenkins or Taylor. This is something that the Bulldogs didn’t have last season, the size outside to contain the 2 over sized guards.

Hood has publicly stated he is going to make defense a priority in this game. Mississippi State has the players to make it tough for any team to score. Last season the Bulldogs only allowed 41% shooting. I expect it to be tougher for Vanderbilt than the spread indicates.

These two teams are too evenly matched for a spread this big.

 

Pick: Mississippi State +7

The 76ers may be the most surprising team in the NBA right now. Their 10-3 gives them a 4 game lead in a division that has both the New York Knicks and the Boston Celtics. Tonight they host the Denver Nuggets who have a 9-5 record and are already 3 games back of league leading Oklahoma City Thunder.

Denver needs this game more than the 76ers. I know it’s early in the season, but the Nuggets are in the middle of a 5 game road streak and have to have a stellar performance to not fall out of the division race already.

The 76ers meanwhile are sitting comfortable and are read hot.

Philadelphia 76ers are 9-1 SU and against the spread in their last 10. Bettors are loving them right now which explains why the public is pounding Philadelphia right now. It’s a bad move. I am not saying this team isn’t a true contender, because they are deep, but they aren’t as hot as you may think.

Lets evaluate their last 10 games, shall we?

Golden State 5-8

New Orleans 3-10

Detroit 3-11

Toronto 4-10

Indiana 9-3

Sacramento 4-10

New York 6-7

Washington 1-12

Washington 1-12

Milwaukee 4-9

 

They went 9-1 against them, but notice they just weren’t playing bad NBA teams, they were playing the worst of the worst! They played 5 games against teams that are dead last in their division.

Their opponents in the last 10 games record stands at 40-92, a winning percentage of .300! There will be no easier stretch in the NBA this entire season.

Remember I told you the 76ers strength is their depth, well that’s also the Nuggets strength. Both teams have 8 players that average over 5 ppg.

The difference in this game is going to be size, something that 76ers don’t have. Their Center Spencer Hawes who averages 9 rpg and 10 ppg is doubtful, but even if he does play they are too small to defend this giant Nuggets team.

76ers have two players at 6’8 that get serious playing time: Elton Brand and Thaddeous Young. They have a big challenge ahead of them and there just isn’t enough large bodies to throw at them.

Nuggets have  Mozgov 7’1, Nene 6’11, Anderson 6’10, Gallinari 6’10, Cory Brewer 6’9, and Al Harrington 6’9. That’s all I should have to say. You have 2 active players for the 76ers that get regular playing time and they are only 6’8. At any given time, the Nuggets should put 3 of these guys on the floor and there is going to be a mismatch of at least 4 inches.

This 76ers teams in trouble tonight as the Nuggets are going to get easy looks inside. Don’t worry about this game being on the road either: Nuggets are 12-3 last 15 games on the road against a winning opponent. They are not only bigger, I believe they are the better team too.

Take: Nuggets +5.5

 

The number #3 New Orleans Saints travel west to take on the number 2 seeded San Francisco 49ers. This is a great NFC match up and the winner will be just one game away from the Super Bowl.

 

The San Francisco 49ers are a great organization with a great history. However, They haven’t won a playoff game since 2003. That was days of Terrell Owens and that’s a long time for a proud franchise to go without a playoff win. It’snot going to be easy for this 49ers team this time around either.

The Saints are one of the best offensive teams in the history of in the NFL. They set an all time passing record that stood for almost 2 decades. They set NFL record by converting a league best 56.7 percent of 3rd down conversions. If that isn’t impressive enough the converted 41.3 percent of 3rd downs when needing at least 10 yards. Their 3rd and long conversions are better than most teams 3rd and short.

They are as great as advertised on offense. Drew Brees is one of the best QBs in the game with talent all around him. At wide receiver Marques Colston, at tight end Jimmy Graham, at running back Darren Sproles. All these guys can catch, all these guys can run well with the ball and all these guys can be the difference in the game. It impossible to predict the player of the game for this Saints offense other than Brees. With Brees the Saints will be able to score at will and not just through the air. They will be able to move the ball by running it too.

I know the 49ers have the best run defense statistically, but it wouldn’t be hard for a talented defense in the NFC West to get stellar defensive numbers. I am not saying that the 49ers are not a good defensive team, but I am saying they are not as dominate as the appear. The Saints will be able to run the ball this game.

The Saints have played 4 of the top 11 rushing defenses in the NFL. They have put up at least 100 yards on all of them.

 

And against Houston, the 2nd best running team, the Saints Defense allowed 109 yards on 25 carries.

This is a lot of yards to be giving up. Its 135 rushing yards a game allowed by the Saints defense against top running opponents. And most disturbing part about all of this is it was done on very few carries.

 

The Saints allowed over 6 yards per carry in these 4 games. 49ers and Frank Gore should have no problem running the ball.

I don’t know who ends up winning, but I do know that this number is way to low for it to involve 2 offenses that will be able to move the ball at will.

 

Take: Over 47 

There has been a ton of media coverage about Patriots having the 2nd to worst defense in the NFL. However, they are only looking at yards allowed, which can be a good indicator but also can be misleading. A good defense can be a bend but don’t break defense, and the Patriots have that quality. They only allow 21 points per game that’s 15th in the league. It surprisingly good consider the way the media constantly bashes this New England team.

 

Patriots also have a decent rushing defense. They are 17th in the league. They still have Vincent Wilford at the DT who has made his millions by stopping the run at 6’2 325lbs, the is a big guy that is a space eater and a run stopper. He’s not alone up there either, they have another big guy in the middle named Kyle Love who is 6’1 is 310 pounds. This is a lot of man in the middle of this line. It’s going to be a factor in this game.

See the Broncos run up the middle much more than to the outsides which make the Defensive tackles the most important part of this defensive unit. I think they are going to stuff the Broncos at the line this time around. 

I know many of you will point to their meeting earlier in the year when the Denver Broncos ran all over the Patriots. Broncos put up 252 rushing yards, which is a staggering amount. However, 90 of those yards came from Tebow. Tebow is much bigger and stronger than defenses expect which is exactly what the Patriots players thought after their meeting. They were surprised by his size and strength, well they won’t be surprised this time. They are going to be more prepared!

Tebow’s offense is different than any other in the NFL, however, it’s based on deception. This extra preparation is a much much bigger advantage to the Patriots than any other team playing this weekend. They faced Tebow once, they saw it live and now they will have time to adjust. Only one other team has played Denver twice with Tebow at quarterback, and that was Kansas City Chiefs. In there 2nd game, the Chiefs held the Broncos to just 3 points and 266 total yards! That’s what happens when you play a gimmick offense twice. You learn their tricks and you adjust. The adjustments the Patriots make are going to slow down Tim Tebow. 

 

Still, I am not taking the Patriots 14 points is just too much! But you have to love the Under here.

Denver doesn’t have the offensive fire power to warrant a total this high. The number is everything in sports betting and this number is too high. For the Broncos they haven’t had a total this high all year. In fact, Since Tebow has taken over the Broncos have only averaged a total of 40.5 points. 10 points is a huge difference.

The fact this game is at Gillette Stadium is a big deal. First, Tebow has only played in one game in cold weather and that was against the Bills were he was picked off 3 times. The temperature for this game is going to be in the teens. Tebow isn’t going to like and surely isn’t going to like getting hit in the cold weather. I expect him to fumble the ball at least once in this game. But more importantly is the high winds, near 20 mph which will slow down Brady as well.

This game is going Under.

Take Under 50