Bryan Albin’s College Football Games of the Week

3.       #21 LSU TIGERS (-4, -110) VS.  #18 UNC TAR HEELS (+4, -110)

September 4   8:00 PM ET

This game was once looking like it would be the best game of Saturday, but NCAA investigations surrounding the UNC football program have completely turned the tables. Both teams came into this season with question marks on offense. The Tar Heels now have to worry about how many of their star defenders will be allowed to play, as star DT Marvin Austin has already been suspended indefinitely and further punishments for other players, including leading WR Greg Little, could come before kickoff. However, despite he distractions that UNC has coming into this game, it is still a game between two ranked teams and the winner of this game ought to be looked at as an outside BCS title contender right out of the gate.

BEST OFFENSE IS A SUSPENDED DEFENSE?

LSU was horrible offensively a year ago, as it averaged barely over 300 yards of offense per game, which was 112th out of 120 teams in the FBS. People around Baton Rouge have been expecting the offense to be better this year in QB Jordan Jefferson’s Junior season, but there’s no doubt that Tigers fans probably weren’t too happy about having to go up against a vaunted Tar Heels defense in the first game of the year. Now it appears that the defense may not be so dominant on Saturday. Austin will definitely not play, and it is possible that LB’s Quan Sturdivant and Bruce Carter could be suspended for the game as well, as their names have been involved in the ongoing NCAA investigations surrounding the UNC program. If Sturdivant, Austin and Carter are all out for this one, the heart and soul of the Tar Heels defense would be gone. EVen if it’s just Austin out, the UNC defense will be less effective, as Austin is the kind of incredible space eater that gives guys like Carter and Sturdivant he ability to attack the line of scrimmage freely and clog up running lanes. LSU RB Richard Murphy will try and capitalize on the absence of Austin in the middle.

KEYS TO THE GAME

• How many UNC players will be out? If it’s just Austin, UNC still has a very good shot at winning this football game. If Greg Little is suspended too, UNC would lose its best offensive playmaker, which could be  a major problem considering offense will be hard to come by on Saturday.
• Has Jordan Jefferson put it together? He was sacked 32 times a year ago, mostly because he holds on to the ball too long. While he is incredibly talented, he needs to show the polish to recognize which throws are smart throws, and when he needs to just throw the ball away because nothing has developed. If he shows that kind of maturity, I like LSU’s chances.
• Can UNC run the ball against the LSU defense? While Shaun Draughn is probably the go to back for the Tar Heels, I think the physical Ryan Houston is going to have to see a lot of early action to wear down the Tiger front seven. His physical running early may open up some holes for Draughn later.

Pick:            LSU   24                         UNC       13                   LSU Covers