In: MLB Free Picks12 Oct 2011
Chris Hodge, Free Picks Newsletter Editor
250-150-3 of last 403
MLB: Milwaukee Brewers (+140) vs. St. Louis Cardinals (-160); Over/Under (O/U 7o -120)
So how many times have we seen this scenario play out in the MLB playoffs?
Two staff are scheduled to toe the rubber in Game x. The buzz around the game is atwitter with prognostications of a 2-1 final score, but yet by the fifth inning 12 runs have crossed the plate and both teams are on their second reliever.
That’s what we’re dealing with tonight in St. Louis as the Cardinals host the Milwaukee Brewers for Game 3 of the NLCS. Two marquee pitchers, Yovani Gallardo and Chris Carpenter, are the scheduled starters.
The Cardinals are heavy favorites at home with odds makers setting the money line at -150 to -160 depending on the source. The Cards are favored not only because they are home, but because Carpenter has not only been hot lately, he’s also owned the Brewers lineup.
On the other side of things, Gallardo has been the Cardinals favorite pitcher from the Brewers rotation. Gallardo has allowed 27 home runs this season, and the Cardinals are responsible for eight of them. Six of those homers came in two games just last month as the season came to an end.
The tea leaves are all pointing toward Gallardo having another rough night, especially if Albert Pujols continues to hit the way he did in Game 2.
In Game 2 Pujols went 4-5, with three doubles and a homer, in the Cardinals win.
Pujols is 12-27 with four homers against Gallardo for his career. Yikes.
Gallardo has certainly looked like a 17-game winner over his past two starts, but he had several quality starts leading into his meltdowns against the Cardinals last month as well.
Conversely, the last time Carpenter faced the Brewers in St. Louis he threw a complete-game, 4-hit shutout. The outing against Milwaukee before that start was an 8-inning, 2-run performance.
Carp’s last outing was one of his best ever. Just last week, he shut the Phillies down in a 1-0 shutout to get the Cards to the NLCS for an NL Central showdown.
It’s hard to go against the Cardinals at home here, but the numbers are stacked mighty tall to lay much of a bet on the game. The 7-run over/under is probably the best way to go on this one.
Since August, the Cards and Brewers have met 14 times, and they’ve topped a combined seven runs eight times. The Cardinals have scored 18 runs over the past two games, and given their history against Gallardo, and given the possibiilty that Carpenter doesn’t throw a masterpiece, the over looks mighty good.
Pick: Take the over (7 -120)