In: NBA Free Picks7 Apr 2012
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
157-106-1 Overall Record
Pro Basketball Predictions: Minnesota Timberwolves (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Hornets (+2.5) Over -Under 190.5
You may not think much of this match between Minnesota and New Orleans but there is an advantage here you must see.
It’s really unbelievable the amount of talent these two teams have that will not be playing due to injury, and really it’s my whole reasoning behind the under.
We all know when we are watching the NBA, once both team starting units are out, it’s usually a slow, ugly type of basketball. That’s why the better teams have a “6th” man, because one talented offensive player can dominate against this poor competition. However, that 6th man, isn’t expect to do it the whole game.
Minnesota Timberwolves Injuries
Michael Beasley has missed 4 straight games, and questionable tonight. If he misses thats 11.2 ppg and 4.3 rpg.
Darko Milicic has battled injuries all year, his season numbers this year 4.6 ppg and 3.3 rpg are basically half of his results last season, but for this purpose Ill use the smaller numbers.
Luke Ridnour, just one of the two starting guards out for the Timberwolves averages 12.7 ppg, 2.7 rpg, and 4.8 assists a game.
Of course the Timberwolves other starting guard, Ricky Rubio 10.6 ppg, 4.2 rpg, and 8.2 assists is also out.
So neither starting guard also known as the team’s ball handlers are starting. This is a major issue in itself for offensive teams. But also the Timberwolves are missing 39.1 points with these 4 out! That’s 40% of this teams total points out. 14 assists are also missing. That is 71.5% of this teams assist per game, out. And that just offense and doesn’t include the 14.7 rpg also missing.
You think that would make the Hornets the smart bet, and normally you would be right on the money but they have their own injury problems.
New Orleans Injuries
Emeka Okafor is out, the big man puts in 10 ppg and 7.9 rebounds.
Jarrett Jack is questionable, if he is out, so are his 15.6 points per game, 3.9 rebounds and along with 6.3 assist
Also out is the 6’11 center Chris Johnson who puts 2 ppg and 1.5 rebounds.
That’s 2 big men out for the Hornets. Also 27.6 ppg out and over 13 rebounds out. This is going to be ugly. Jarrett Jack has carried this team offensively while the teams best offensive weapon. Eric Gordon averages 22 ppg last year, was recovering from energy.
Eric Gordon is finally back and will be playing his 6th game this season, without the offensive help of Jarrett Jack and without the big man of Emeka Okafor.
What is left are the teams two 2nd units, with Kevin Love and and Eric Gordon basically playing the 6th man role. Its going to be ugly, disorganized offense.
Take the Under, in this match up it’s cashed 4 straight times anyways, and 9 of its last 10. No reason not to think these teams with 50 ppg out will be able to get over the total.
Pick: Under 190.5