In: MLB Free Picks10 Jul 2011
Free Pick Newsletter Lead Researcher
96-52-1 Overall Record
Minnesota Twins (+160) vs Chicago White Sox (-170) Over–Under 8.5
Before I start with the free pick of the day. I want to bring your attention to something. There will be some stars sitting out today since it is the day before the all star break. If a player is playing in this Years All Star Game, there is a chance that player will sit out to give him an extended break. Look into that before placing any of your wagers today. Now onto my play today.
The White Sox are a huge favorite, and been large favorites for 7 straight games. It has nothing to do with who they playing and more to do with the fact that this team was desperately trying to reach .500 by the All Star Break. It’s been noted in the media by Chicago’s players and coaches that was the goal. This team was giving it its all. Motivation is a big factor when you are talking about a 162 game season. The White Sox will come up short in their goal, but lets not forget, it wasn’t long ago this team was 10 games back from the AL Central lead, and right now they are only 4.5 games back. They did cut that lead in half in a months time.
Another advantage the White Sox have today is having a healthy Jake Peavy take the mound. Peavy needs to be this teams Ace. Buehrle has a workhorse over the years, but Chicago needs Peavy to be successful. Peavy has had limited success in his return. He’s actually been very good as far as allowing hits his concerned. Hitters only have a .236 batting average against Peavy, and he is even better in US Cellular Park, where Peavy holds hitters to Under .200. It’s not the hits that are concerning.
Peavy’s ERA may not reflect his success, which is why I describe his season as “limited success”. Peavy’s ERA is high when comparing them to the amount of hits he has allowed. His main problem has been the fact he has allowed runs in the early part of the ballgame. He has pitched 21.1 innings since his return from the DL, allowing 12 runs, but 6 of those 12 came in the first 2 innings. Once Peavy settles in, he is shutting teams down. They are getting to them early and this is something he can improve upon. This is important to note, and probably has more to do with his warmup routine than his abilities. I fully expect him to be able to fix this problem. The Twins only score a run in the 1st inning 32% of the time. It will be important for our wager that Peavy gets off to a fast start and doesn’t allow the Twins to score a run in the first inning.
He should have a natural advantage in the first couple innings over the Twins because no Twins hitter has faced him since the 2008 season. For that dont know, a pitcher has a major advantage over a hitter who hasn’t faced him recently. 3 of the 9 projected players for the Twins have never faced Peavy before. The others are just 3 of 14 Lifetime against Peavy, thats an average of .214. Peavy has never allowed an RBI to any of these Twins hitters. I expect that trend to continue today which will give our Under a major advantage.
Let’s not forget, Peavy is a former Cy Young winner and given that the White Sox are 7-2 in Peavy’s last 9 starts, along with all the other facts I’ve already presented. I have to agree with the oddsmakers. The White Sox are the heavy favorite. I dont see them losing this game and I don’t see Twin scoring more than 2 runs which makes this an easy Under.
Take a 2 team Parlay: White Sox -170 and the Under 8.5.