In: NFL Free Picks14 Jan 2012
Pro Football: New Orleans Saints (-3.5) vs San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) Over – Under 47
The Saints are one of the best offensive teams in the history of in the NFL. They set an all time passing record that stood for almost 2 decades. They set NFL record by converting a league best 56.7 percent of 3rd down conversions. If that isn’t impressive enough the converted 41.3 percent of 3rd downs when needing at least 10 yards. Their 3rd and long conversions are better than most teams 3rd and short.
They are as great as advertised on offense. Drew Brees is one of the best QBs in the game with talent all around him. At wide receiver Marques Colston, at tight end Jimmy Graham, at running back Darren Sproles. All these guys can catch, all these guys can run well with the ball and all these guys can be the difference in the game. It impossible to predict the player of the game for this Saints offense other than Brees. With Brees the Saints will be able to score at will and not just through the air. They will be able to move the ball by running it too.
Thats 139 yards a game against top rushing defenses. Theres no reason to think the 49ers can slow down the Saints.
However this goes both ways. As great as the Saints are on offense, they are not great on defense. They will be challenged by the 49ers rushing attack. The 49ers are the number 1 rushing team in the league. The Saints have already faced the number 2, 3 and 4th best rushing teams and gave up a ton of yards and yards per carry.
The Saints played the Panthers twice, who are the 3rd best rushing team in the league: In those games they gave up over 160 yards rushing in each game.
A total of 46 carries for 326 yards.
Against the Vikings, the 4th best rushing team, On only 18 attempts New Orleans allowed 105 yards rushing
This is a lot of yards to be giving up. Its 135 rushing yards a game allowed by the Saints defense against top running opponents. And most disturbing part about all of this is it was done on very few carries.
I don’t know who ends up winning, but I do know that this number is way to low for it to involve 2 offenses that will be able to move the ball at will.