Jason Storm
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
143-93-1 Overall Record

Pro Football: New Orleans Saints (-3.5) vs San Francisco 49ers (+3.5) Over – Under 47

 

The number #3 New Orleans Saints travel west to take on the number 2 seeded San Francisco 49ers. This is a great NFC match up and the winner will be just one game away from the Super Bowl.

 

The San Francisco 49ers are a great organization with a great history. However, They haven’t won a playoff game since 2003. That was days of Terrell Owens and that’s a long time for a proud franchise to go without a playoff win. It’snot going to be easy for this 49ers team this time around either.

The Saints are one of the best offensive teams in the history of in the NFL. They set an all time passing record that stood for almost 2 decades. They set NFL record by converting a league best 56.7 percent of 3rd down conversions. If that isn’t impressive enough the converted 41.3 percent of 3rd downs when needing at least 10 yards. Their 3rd and long conversions are better than most teams 3rd and short.

They are as great as advertised on offense. Drew Brees is one of the best QBs in the game with talent all around him. At wide receiver Marques Colston, at tight end Jimmy Graham, at running back Darren Sproles. All these guys can catch, all these guys can run well with the ball and all these guys can be the difference in the game. It impossible to predict the player of the game for this Saints offense other than Brees. With Brees the Saints will be able to score at will and not just through the air. They will be able to move the ball by running it too.

I know the 49ers have the best run defense statistically, but it wouldn’t be hard for a talented defense in the NFC West to get stellar defensive numbers. I am not saying that the 49ers are not a good defensive team, but I am saying they are not as dominate as the appear. The Saints will be able to run the ball this game.

The Saints have played 4 of the top 11 rushing defenses in the NFL. They have put up at least 100 yards on all of them.

 

And against Houston, the 2nd best running team, the Saints Defense allowed 109 yards on 25 carries.

This is a lot of yards to be giving up. Its 135 rushing yards a game allowed by the Saints defense against top running opponents. And most disturbing part about all of this is it was done on very few carries.

 

The Saints allowed over 6 yards per carry in these 4 games. 49ers and Frank Gore should have no problem running the ball.

I don’t know who ends up winning, but I do know that this number is way to low for it to involve 2 offenses that will be able to move the ball at will.

 

Take: Over 47