In: MLB Free Picks13 Apr 2012
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
158-107-1 Overall Record
Pro Baseball Predictions: New York Mets (+165) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (-175 ) Over-Under 6.5
This is two different teams with two different projections and expectations. Philadelphia Phillies are expected to win the NL East and are actually favored to win the entire National League. It’s been a disappointing 3-3 start for the Phillies but they look to get over the .500 mark against the New York Mets today. The Mets were picked to finished dead last in the NL East. Yet, they are 4-2, looking to go 5-2 today and build a lead in the NL East.
Philadelphia is still without the services of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley. Here is projected starting line up for Philadelphia
Jimmy Rollins, Placido Polanco, Shane Victorino, Hunter Pence, Ty Wigginton, Laynce Nix, Carlos Ruiz, Freddy Galvis.
The projected starting line up for the Met’s is up in the air. David Wright is injured but is possible. But here is the line up if he doesn’t play.
Ruben Tejada, Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, Jason Bay, Josh Thole, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Ronny Cedeno
With baseball its ultimately the starting pitchers that have the greatest influence on the line up, and there is no stronger trends when you have a knuckleballer on the mound. That is the case with R.A. Dickey the starting pitcher of the Mets. RA Dickey actually has some very good, even fantastic numbers against the Phillies. His modest 2-3 record doesn’t reflect his amazing 2.61 career ERA against Philadelphia. That’s 38 innings pitched only allowing 11 earned runs. That’s impressive.
Against 2 of the most important offensive pieces for the Phillies, Rollins and Pence are combined 3 for 28 against Dickey! That’s a batting average of .107 against Dickey lifetime. Nearly 30 at bats and just 3 hits.
That’s domination and with the Phillies missing hitters like Utley and Howard, they need every player to step up. However, it’s not going to happen against Dickey. Rollins and Pence are just unable to hit the knuckle ball. RA Dickey isn’t going to have it easy though. His counter part will be last year 17 game winner Cliff Lee.
Cliff Lee has absolutely owed the Mets. In 3 games, he has allowed just 1 run the last 21 innings. Each start he has gone 7 innings with at least 5 strike outs.
Lee is one of the best pitchers in baseball. This is noted by his 120 million contract. He is worth it. The Mets are going to struggle with or without Wright. Wright has 7 at bats against Lee, he struck out in 3 of them. It won’t matter if he is in or out tonight.
Lee is going to be tough for the Mets, not only because he is an elite MLB pitcher, but because the Mets have had very limited experience against Lee. There number 1 thru 4 hitters each only have 3 career at bats against Lee. This is a huge advantage for Lee.
So in conclusion, There is no Ryan Howard, there is no Chase Utley, there probably isn’t any David Wright. The Phillies cannot hit knuckle ballers. Dickey has dominated Philly, just as Lee dominates the entire league. Pitchers will be the star of this game.
Take Under 6.5