Jason Storm 
 Free Pick Newsletter Lead Researcher
97-55-1 Overall Record  

 New York Yankees(-110) vs Toronto Blue Jays (+100)  Over–Under 9.5

The troubles of Phil Hughes is an ongoing saga. It started in Spring Training when scouts realized his fast ball was 5mph slower than last year. It never really got better. He made 3 starts in April for the Yankees, he went 0-3 with an ERA near 14 and averages under 4 innings a start in those starts in April! That earned him a trip to the DL. He followed that with a couple starts in the minors, before returning to the bigs right before the All Star break. He has an okay start and even though he wasn’t spectacular, he wasn’t bad either. He still only made it through 5 innings, which has New York wondering if this Saga will Continue…

 

Hughes numbers in his 1st start back from the DL aren’t awful. In 5 innings, he only allowed 2 runs. His problem was control, he allowed 2 walks and also 2 hit batters. But Cleveland hitters didn’t hit him hard. He didn’t allow a single extra base hit. That’s a very telling sign. In the minors, they didn’t hit him well either. In fact, he only allowed 9 hits in 14 innings. That’s better than good, that’s great. Hughes is making progress, and that is what creates value. We are buying Hughes to improve.

Remember that he pitches for the Yankees. He doesn’t have to be great, he just has to keep them in the game. This team puts up runs, over 5 a game. Like I said before, this Yankees team is one of the best in the league offensively. They are in the top 4 in all of baseball in runs scored, homeruns, total bases, RBIs, and slugging percentage. The Yankees can pound the ball. That is proven by the fact that the Yankees have scored 10 or more runs 11 times this season! But don’t think of the Yankees as one dimensional power hitting team. I know they lead the league in Homeruns, but what you may not know is this Yankees team has the 3rd most stolen bases in the AL. They put themselves in position to score runs. And they will give Hughes a chance to get his first win of the year if he can just keep them in it.

He should be able to do just that. Phil Hughes has good numbers against the Blue Jay in his career. The Blue Jays projected line up has 70 At bats against Hughes in his career, but on 14 hits. 
That’s a batting average against of only .200, and no person on this team with more than 2 ABs against Hughes has an average higher than.250 against him in his career. Hughes is the key to this game. He’s been given extra rest and hasn’t pitched in 10 days. This will help the young guy. He is turning it around slowly but today he makes a big step. He earns the win in this game.

Take: Yankees -110