Jason Storm
Free Pick Newsletter Lead Researcher
113-66-1 Overall Record   

MLB: Oakland A’s (+195) vs New York Yankees (-210) Over-Under 9.5

The Oakland Athletics are playing the Yankees. Your first reaction would be take Yankees. However, you would be shocked to hear that Oakland, if they win this game, would have swept the Yankees for the first time in 5 Years. So maybe that will make you think twice. If you were going off just the fact that A’s were playing the Yankees, you would have no idea whether to lean the Under given Oakland’s horrible offense or lean Over because of the Yankees powerful offense. You need to look at more the pitchers starting this game, because in this instance you will get a clear answer of what the best bet is today.

 

It was not long ago that Phil Hughes was looking like he was going demoted to AAA and not even make the postseason roster. Now it’s looking like he has a shot of being this teams number 2 starter in the postseason. In his last 3 starts, Hughes was a perfect 3-0. Before that streak, he was 1-4 on the season. In his first 4 starts back in the rotation with this team, He pitched 21 innings and allowed 13 runs. That’s just 5.1 innings a start with an ERA of 5.57. What a turn around it has been. In 3 games, he hasn’t been good, he has been incredible. He has pitched 19.2 innings and allowed just 9 hits! That’s just 3 hits a start. His WHIP is an impressive 0.66 with an ERA of just 1.37. There is no way you can take a guy out of the starting rotation when he is performing at that level.

Today he will get the face the Oakland A’s. This Oakland team is not a Money Ball team. They have trouble getting on base, and don’t even hit for average. This team has a  batting average of .245. That’s 2nd worst in the AL. This team has no offensive leader. Coco Crisp is leading the team in batting average with a batting average of .275! To show you just how awful that is, the Yankees will have 5 players in the starting line up with an average of .275 or higher. You cannot be a good offensive team when your best average hitter isn’t close to  the.300 mark. This Oakland team also lacks power. Some of it could be the ballpark, but when you are the last in the AL it is hard to make excuses. The A’s have only hit 81 long balls this season while the Yankees have hit 170! That’s twice as much.

At this point you may be thinking I am going to tell you to the Yankees, but I cannot do that. One the juice is just ridiculous at -210. Truthfully, I wouldn’t even recommend it at -150.

The reason I cannot advise you to take New York is Rich Harden. Harden has the stuff to be an elite pitcher but injuries have kept him from doing so. Even though Harden has spent 9 of his 10 years playing with losing franchises like the A’s and the Cubs, Harden’s career record 59-39! That’s winning 60% of the time. To put that in perspective, the Yankees ace CC Sabathia, has a career winning percentage of 64%. This guy is good. In Harden’s last start, he matched a career high striking out 11 batters. Over his last 3, he is 2-0 with a 1.28 WHIP. That WHIP is actually right in line with where he has been all season. This guy just doesn’t allow many hits or walks. In fact, since the all star break Harden has a major league leading 11.2 strike outs per 9 innings. Opponents are not even getting the bat on the ball. His 2.50 ERA is reflective of how good he has been this entire season, not just in 3 starts.

 

I know the Yankees offense is powerful, but Harden has already faced them once this season putting up a respectable 5.1 innings of work, allowing just 5 hits and 2 runs. Right now Harden is at his best. I would love to tell you to take the A’s and the huge underdog but Hughes has been just as good of late, and the A’s don’t have the offense. The best move here is the UNDER

Take: UNDER 9.5