Jason Storm
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
152-98-1 Overall Record   

College Basketball Predictions:  Oklahoma State (+11.5) vs. Missouri (-11.5) Over – Under 142.5

The Big 12 Tournament starts today and this tournament is going to be fun. You have Kansas currently projected as a number 1 seed in the NCAA tournament and also a 1 seed in the conference tournament. Then you have the Missouri Tigers, 5th ranked team in the country,  ranked as high as #2 in the country. Also, you cannot underestimate the Baylor Bears who were number 1 in the country at a earlier point in the season. This is a talented Big 12 conference. Any of these teams could win.

However, the contest between Oklahoma State and Missouri in today’s opening round of the Big 12 tournament is a foregone conclusion. Missouri is winning this game, the question is by how much.

 

Missouri has lost to only 3 teams all season, and surprisingly one of their losses to Oklahoma State. It was a perfect storm of events. Missouri was coming off a huge emotional win over Baylor to give them a tie at top of the Big 12. They then went on the road to Stillwater where the actually outplayed Missouri, but was badly outshot, which is almost impossible to understand. This Missouri team should never be outshot. That is a fluke in itself.

Oklahoma State made 31 of its 52 shots. That’s 59% from the floor. Missouri was just 26-65, 40%. In this game, Two Cowboys had season high point totals. Le’Bryan Nash had 27 points, career high. Brian Williams had 22 points a season high. A perfect storm for a huge upset.

Yet, there is no way Oklahoma State is going to be able to pull this victory off again. Le’Bryan Nash was injured in his last game and is out for the season. This 6’7 guard created matchup problems, and gave the Cowboys a huge offensive lift. He was the 2nd leading scorer on the team at 13.3, and the one of 3 players to lead the team at 5 rebounds a game. This would be a huge task with Nash, but impossible without him.

 

Missouri should of won that first game and I say that with confidence. They had 12 offensive rebounds compared to Oklahoma State’s 6. Normally Mizz isn’t going to have a lot of 2nd shot opportunities. They make 50% of their shots on the season, 3rd in the nation. But if they are able to generate offensive boards, its nearly impossible to beat them.

Also Mizz created 16 turnovers in that one. They had 12 more shots than Oklahoma State. These are the reasons I say they outplayed them. In their 2nd meeting, it was domination. Missouri lead 44-22 at half. It ended as a 18 point win and never was close. Even though Mizz hit 52% of their shots compared to Oklahoma’s 41%. Regardless of the fact that Mizz had fewer chances, they still had 9 offensive boards, just as many as Oklahoma State.

Oklahoma State is short handed and has a unrealistic shot of winning the Big 12. They are playing one of the best teams in the country without their 2nd best scorer. Mizz is one of the highest scoring teams in the country. They should have no trouble covering this spread.

Take Missouri -11.5