In: MLB Free Picks13 Sep 2011
MLB: Toronto Blue Jays (+130) vs Boston Red Sox (-140) Over – Under 10
Toronto’s starting pitcher today is Brandon Morrow. He cannot be looking forward to taking the mound to face the Boston Red Sox. Morrow has 14 career appearances against the Red Sox including 6 starts. He has a 1-2 record which is surprising when you look at the rest of his stats. He has a 9.70 ERA vs Boston in his career. That’s mind blowing. His .317 batting average against them is very poor, but just as poor is his 25 walks in 34 innings pitched. That is nearly 7 walks per 9 innings pitched! That’s an unbelievable number. Even if a pitcher wasn’t allowing a .300 batting average against, it would still be hard for a pitcher to have any success allowing that many walks.
The Red Sox starting pitcher is Tim Wakefield. The knuckballer is 6-6 with a ERA over 5 on the year. You may be surprised to hear that Wakefield has only has had 1 winning season since 2008! That was in 2009 when he went 11-5. He has 3 losing season since the start of the 2008 season. In those seasons, he is a combined, 20-27. That includes his 2-1 Record against the Blue Jays this year. That record is a little misleading when you see his ERA of 5 against them. This team is hitting him with a .291 Batting average this year.
That’s too high for me to take the Red Sox which the high juice, but it shows that there is tremendous value in this Over. There will be plenty or hits, walks and runs today. Over 10 should be easy.
Take: Over 10