Jason Storm
Free Picks Newsletter Lead Researcher
115-69-1 Overall Record 

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays (+130) vs Boston Red Sox (-140) Over – Under 10

.
Sometimes pitchers are just dominated by certain teams and certain players. That is the case tonight in this Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox game.

Toronto’s starting pitcher today is Brandon Morrow. He cannot be looking forward to taking the mound to face the Boston Red Sox. Morrow has 14 career appearances against the Red Sox including 6 starts. He has a 1-2 record which is surprising when you look at the rest of his stats. He has a 9.70 ERA vs Boston in his career. That’s mind blowing. His .317 batting average against them is very poor, but just as poor is his 25 walks in 34 innings pitched. That is nearly 7 walks per 9 innings pitched! That’s an unbelievable number.  Even if a pitcher wasn’t allowing a .300 batting average against, it would still be hard for a pitcher to have any success allowing that many walks.

 

This year has been Morrow’s worst year ever against the Red Sox. His numbers are gaudy across the board: a 13.83 ERA, a 2.20 WHIP and .377 BAA. That’s 21 earned runs in less than 14 innings of work!

 

The fact he is having the worst year of his career against the Red Sox is a testament to how good this Red Sox line up is from top to bottom. This Red Sox team is number 1 in all of baseball in many key offensive categories including number 1 in batting average, runs scored, RBIs, Doubles and even slugging percentage. They are 2nd in the league in home runs. This is a lethal offense that does it all. They have the potential AL MVP in Adrian Gonzalez. Adrian has a .339 BA, 25 HRs and 109 RBIs. But its not a one man team. This Red Sox line up has 4 every day hitters hitting .296 or higher! This team has 3 hitters with 25+ HRs already! They should have no problem scoring runs against a below average pitcher.

 

I could go on and on about how this Morrow vs Red Sox offense is a bad match up for him and the Blue Jays, but I think I’ve made my point. So now the question is, do you play the Red Sox or the over.

The Red Sox starting pitcher is Tim Wakefield. The knuckballer is 6-6 with a ERA over 5 on the year. You may be surprised to hear that Wakefield has only has had 1 winning season since 2008! That was in 2009 when he went 11-5. He has 3 losing season since the start of the 2008 season. In those seasons, he is a combined, 20-27. That includes his 2-1 Record against the Blue Jays this year. That record is a little misleading when you see his ERA of 5 against them. This team is hitting him with a .291 Batting average this year.

That’s too high for me to take the Red Sox which the high juice, but it shows that there is tremendous value in this Over. There will be plenty or hits, walks and runs today. Over 10 should be easy.

Take: Over 10